Humans have learned to categorize their topics and thoughts in order to better understand their meanings and concepts. When people encounter a new phenomenon and this phenomenon is incompatible with their preconceived classifications, they try to adapt this phenomenon to their previous classification in any way possible. This conceptual framework provides a useful tool for processing new information using relevant / comparable experiences in the past.
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Sometimes the new stimulus resembles or represents familiar elements that have already been categorized. At the same time, there are cases of analogy that are very different from each other. In such cases, the classification reaction is misleading and creates a misunderstanding of the new element, which is often persistent and affects future interactions with the element.
General introduction of representation or representation
Basically, man tends to think of chances and possibilities in a way that is consistent with his previous ideas and perceptions, even when the resulting inference is statistically invalid. For example, the gambler’s illusion refers to the common notion that success and luck in betting and gambling occur periodically.
Contrary to mathematical (computational) facts, mental psychology causes this sophistry. Statistically, the concept of distance is illogical. People are generally inclined to accept what researchers know as the law of small numbers. This term means that small samples always represent themselves and are perfect for the whole society. But the scientific principles do not approve of this law.
Examples of the negative effects of display bias
- Investors can make important mistakes in reviewing the background of an investment manager. They look at the performance of seasons or few years in the past and, based on insufficient statistical data, conclude that good performance is the result of managerial skillful assignments and selections, or vice versa.
- Investors also make other similar mistakes when reviewing the records of securities analysts. For example, they look at the success of a few analysts’ suggestions in the past and, based on this limited sample of data, make an inaccurate assessment of the analyst’s aptitude and competence.
- What is the probability that Company A (a hypothetical 75-year-old company operating in the metals industry and now having problems in its business) is in Group B (growth companies that are likely to be better off in the future? To answer this question, most investors will try to judge and evaluate the degree of probability that Company A belongs to Group B or C. کردن. Some of the articles in the magazines that have headlined the recent bankruptcies of metal industry companies make Company A look like a better candidate or better representative of Group C, and therefore may conclude that the best course of action is to sell the company’s stock. . In this case, they ignore the important fact that statistically the number of companies of this type that remain in the industry is much higher than those that have stopped and left the industry.
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