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What are the advantages and disadvantages of technical analysis?

What are the advantages and disadvantages of technical analysis?

Since the advent of financial markets,  investors  have always tried; Predict the future of these markets through different methods   . To this end, some of them resorted to using the  past price  to predict the future condition of assets; Which later became known as ” technical or graphical analysis “. Simply put, technical analysis involves examining all   past price-related data in order to understand  the  typical price behavior of an asset and  predict  its future. This method of market analysis has gained a  lot of fans over time  and is no longer  hidden from anyone, which is  at least part of the trading strategy of  most Financial market participants include technical analysis. Also, with the many researches that have been done in the last few decades, graph analysis has become very  widespread  and today includes various methods such as  Elliott ,  Fibonacci ,  Andrews’s fork  and..

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3 basic principles of technical analysis

According to historical sources, the origins of graph analysis go back to the nineteenth century   and the theories of Charles Dow , and for this reason, he is  known as the  father  of technical analysis . In general, technical analysis is based on the three basic principles mentioned in Dow’s theory.

1- Everything is summarized in the price

According to this rule, to analyze the market, you only have   to look at the price ; Because the final price agreed between traders is  influenced by all economic ,  political and ؤ components  and its analysis  will be related to the study of all  fundamental factors !

2- Price movements have a certain trend

This principle can be considered a metaphor for  Newton’s first law  in technical analysis. In fact, Dow believed; Prices to the  downside  or  the upside  continues, unless other  external factors  leading to changes in the market.

3- History can be repeated

The use of   human collective psychology is one of the main theories in graph analysis. In fact,   there is a possibility ; In the event of similar situations  , individuals will react  predictably and jointly based on their previous perceptions and mental data  .

Technical versus fundamental analysis

The two main methods of stock market analysis and other parallel markets are technical  and  fundamental analysis   . In the analytical environment of financial markets, these two methods have always been  opposed to  each other, and their proponents have each tried to  prove the  effectiveness of their preferred method and   its superiority over others. Fundamental analysis   means determining the real  or so-called  intrinsic value  of  an asset based on its financial , economic ,   and financial components and indicators  . Followers of fundamental analysis emphasize that for reasons such as the  inherent valuation of assets based on real statistical data , the  financial expertise of analysts  and Spending more time  checking the overall condition of the asset, the results of this method are   more valid ! But the fact is; So far, no comprehensive study  of the performance  or  the superiority of  either of these methods proved  not to  be; In fact, none of them have 100% performance  ! The effectiveness of  these methods depends more on  how they are used , the  experiences of individuals,  and factors such as  trading strategy , capital management ,   and so on. Today, some analysts, in order to simultaneously enjoy the benefits of fundamental and technical analysis, use a hybrid method called ” technofandamental ” .” they are working; Which provides a more comprehensive view of both methods by examining the factors associated with   them.

Advantages of technical analysis

  • Easy to learn: One  of the undeniable features of graph analysis is the  breadth of tools  and  methods  of market analysis. Learning and understanding are often simple technical concepts   and most people  can in a  short time ; Learn how to  use  this tool. There are currently  many print  and  online educational resources  in this area.
  • High flexibility:  Using the principles of the technical method, the price chart of  each asset  can be analyzed. In this regard, we have almost no restrictions  ; You just have to use the appropriate tools and methods according to the conditions of each symbol   . Other features of this method are the possibility of analysis and trading in  different time periods of the chart,  including short (minute and hour), medium (daily) and long-term (weekly and monthly).
  • Speed ​​of analysis process: The  use of  new technologies  in the context of financial markets has caused; For reasons such as news and rumors,   price fluctuations can sometimes be severe in an instant. Therefore, the ability   to react in a timely manner is an advantage for traders   . Analyzing the status of asset price charts is generally not very time consuming and complicated  ,  and people who have   relative mastery in this field; By spending a certain amount of time during the day,  they will be able to analyze and review different charts  .
  • Accurate entry and exit points:  One of the main reasons for using technical analysis and trading strategy in general is to  determine entry and exit points  in the capital market. In fact, you  will be able to accurately determine the terms of buying and selling various assets by using tools such as  indicators ,  Fibonacci levels and.. In this way,  traders’ confusion is largely  avoided.
  • Accurate and Automated Trading Strategy: Automated  trading or algorithmic trading is one of the  most important  topics in financial markets today. Due to the existence of specific  and mostly  computational parameters, technical methods   can be implemented in the context of different programming languages  . In fact, if  we pay attention to the  details of trading robots, most of them are based on  graph analysis  .

Disadvantages of technical analysis

  • Influence of personal prejudices:  sometimes possible; The person may have an extreme positive  or  negative view of the   status of an asset for reasons such as  previous experiences  or  rumors . In such a situation, the analyst considers  only the  signs that are consistent with   his prejudices , and consequently the output of this analysis leads to irrational results   .
  • Different interpretations:  One of the most important  criticisms  of graph analysis is the existence of  different interpretations of  the same tools and the same data. For example, an indicator in the  oversold  located and traders ‘A’ on the basis of a sign  upside  to  buying  them; But in the same area, person “B”, seeing the  negative divergence  in the price chart and indicators, will expect  the  price to fall further!
  • Multiple Trading Signals:  If you are not a long-term technical trader  , you will probably see   many trading signals during the day or week; Not all of them are suitable for  investment  and may cause you  loss  or  confusion  . Determining the optimal trading position is   often a difficult task   .
  • Failure to determine the intrinsic value : being in  the best areas  based on chart analysis,  required  the  Arzndgy inherent in  it will not be! In fact, the market value of a stock in the price list may be  several times  its intrinsic value; If  the  market falls , traders  will suffer heavy losses  .
  • Impossibility to use in new symbols:  Asset price charts such as  IPOs , due to new entrants in the capital market, do not have enough data   , in other words, a chart has not yet been formed for them! It is clear that technical  methods  cannot be used in such situations   ; Because, as we mentioned, this method is based on past price analysis   .

The final word

The purpose of this article is to provide a summary of all  aspects  of technical analysis; By traders to the analysis of financial markets, the perspective of  deeper  and the  disadvantages  and  advantages of  it will be over. It should be noted that the above does not in any way imply  endorsement  or  rejection  of the graph analysis method. It should always be noted that all methods of analysis, including  technical , will have several  strengths  and  weaknesses  .

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